Early voting has opened in Ohio, and although it is still in its opening days, the first figures do not look especially encouraging for Democrats. Election officials and independent data analysts are watching closely, and their early readings point in different directions. Some expect a strong midterm turnout, while others see warning signs in the initial in-person numbers.
Terry Burton, director of the Wood County Board of Elections, offered a cautious outlook. “It’s not gonna be quite presidential numbers, um, but I do think it will be stronger than last year,” Burton said. He added that officials will not know how many people truly voted until the election season wraps up, when they can compare the totals with previous years.
Warner was more optimistic about participation. “I think there’s going to be a really great turnout this year, and voters are going to be really engaged,” Warner said.
Hamilton County Numbers Draw Scrutiny
Election data analyst Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD, who posts under the handle @TonerousHyus, shared early voting figures from Ohio on X and said Democrats should be concerned. The analyst focused on Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati and voted Brown +41 in a previous election.
According to the post, Hamilton County recorded 2,359 in-person votes on the first day of early voting. The analyst noted that the county had not yet uploaded its raw voter files, so demographic breakdowns could not be checked. The analyst called the figure “well below” their worst-case expectation for Democrats. The same day in 2024 saw 3,309 in-person votes, a drop of 29 percent.
“Applying just a brute force model you expect 68k to vote IPEV in Hamilton vs 96k in 2024. Could obv be lower if it acts like a normal midterm and last few week of IPEV isn’t strong like 2024 was. Early vote was 32% in 2018/2022 and 40% in 2024 of the total vote here.”
The analyst’s model projected about 68,000 early in-person votes in Hamilton County, compared with 96,000 in 2024. The projection could be lower if the county behaves like a typical midterm and the final weeks of early voting are not as strong as they were in 2024. Early voting accounted for 32 percent of the total vote in Hamilton County in 2018 and 2022, and 40 percent in 2024.
The analyst also estimated the impact of the 2024 mail ballot surge. Assuming a 32 percent share to give Democrats the benefit of the doubt, the analyst calculated a turnout shortfall of roughly 11.2 percent compared with 2024 raw turnout, before any assessment of Election Day voting. The estimate is one analyst’s projection based on early data, not an official forecast.
Florida Mail Ballot Returns Show a Shift
Ohio is not the only state showing movement. Florida’s mail ballot returns show a change in the mix of voters, though the early numbers leave important questions unanswered.
Republicans have traditionally dominated Election Day voting, while Democrats have typically led in early and mail voting. The new Florida data suggests that pattern may be shifting, with the biggest change coming from one of the three groups of voters.
Open Source Zone reported that Democrats account for 43.3 percent of Florida’s returned mail ballots in 2026, compared with 35.6 percent for Republicans. Independents make up the remaining 21.1 percent, according to the breakdown posted Tuesday.
Compared with the 2024 election, the Democratic share rose 1.7 percentage points and the Republican share rose 1.1 points. The independent share fell 2.8 points, the largest change among the three groups. Democrats lead Republicans by 7.7 points among returned mail ballots in the post.
The reported changes imply 2024 shares of 41.6 percent for Democrats, 34.5 percent for Republicans, and 23.9 percent for independents. On that basis, the Democratic lead over Republicans was 7.1 points in 2024, meaning the lead in the 2026 returns is six-tenths of a point wider.
Both major parties gained share, and independents lost enough ground to account for those gains. That is a measurable change in the makeup of returned ballots, but its significance remains unclear.
What the Data Does Not Show
The Florida post provides percentages but not the number of ballots returned. Without ballot counts, a change in share cannot tell readers how many additional Democrats or Republicans have returned ballots, or whether either party has more returns than at a comparable point in 2024.
The post also does not say when its return figures were collected or last updated, which matters because the percentages will change as more ballots arrive. It does not explain whether its 2024 comparison measures returns at the same stage of the election or all 2024 returns, and those two comparisons would mean very different things. Publishing the dates and ballot totals would help readers judge the shift more clearly.
The percentages also describe voters’ party registration, not how they will vote in any particular race. A registered Democrat can vote for a Republican candidate, and a registered Republican can vote for a Democrat. Independent voters’ choices are unknown from these figures. The breakdown therefore cannot establish who is winning an election.
The 2.8-point drop among independents stands out because it is larger than the gain for either party. Still, the data does not explain why independents make up a smaller share of returns. Some voters may simply return their ballots later, and the post offers no information about their plans. Nor can the percentages show whether differences in return timing produced the shift.
For now, the numbers support a narrow conclusion about the composition of ballots already returned. Democrats hold the largest share at 43.3 percent, followed by Republicans at 35.6 percent, while independents account for just over one-fifth of the posted returns.
