Republican candidates in several races that will decide whether the party keeps control of the U.S. Senate have moved ahead of their Democratic opponents in new polling, just days before the November 3 midterm elections. Surveys show GOP candidates holding narrow leads in Texas, Kansas, and Iowa, with at least one recent poll in each of Ohio and Michigan also giving Republicans an edge.
The latest figures highlight how slight shifts in voter sentiment could determine control of a chamber that Republicans currently hold 53-47.
Texas and Kansas Tighten
One of the most notable developments came in Texas, where an InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters found Republican Ken Paxton ahead of Democrat James Talarico, 49% to 48%. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.8 points.
That result stands in contrast to a string of recent Texas surveys from Marist, Siena, YouGov, and the University of Texas that had shown Talarico in front. The RealClearPolitics average still gives Talarico a lead, 48.5% to 46.3%. A CBS News poll later found Talarico ahead 51% to 49%, underscoring that the race remains extremely close and that individual surveys are pointing to different leaders.
Republicans also drew encouragement from Kansas, where the latest InsiderAdvantage survey put incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall ahead of Democrat Adam Hamilton, 48% to 47%. That single-point edge was enough to move Marshall narrowly ahead in the RealClearPolitics average, 46% to 45.7%, after earlier polls had alternated between the two candidates.
The competitiveness of the Kansas contest is striking, as the state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in more than nine decades. President Donald Trump traveled to Kansas to campaign for Marshall as Republicans work to shore up support in a state he carried by roughly 16 percentage points in 2024.
Michigan and Iowa Show Republican Momentum
In Michigan, the Tyson Group polling firm found Republican Mike Rogers pulling slightly ahead of Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. According to the firm’s press release, “In our latest survey, Republican Mike Rogers leads Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 46%-44%. Rogers gained three points since our previous statewide Michigan survey.”
Iowa is producing similar signals of Republican strength. Several recent surveys show GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson narrowly ahead of Democrat Josh Turek in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
A co/efficient poll conducted October 19 had Hinson leading 48% to 45%, while a Trafalgar Group survey from October 13 to 15 put her ahead 45.9% to 44.2%. An earlier Emerson College poll showed Hinson up 47% to 45%, and CNN polling had her ahead 45% to 43%. Marist and YouGov, however, have recently shown Turek narrowly in front.
The mixed results reflect the volatility of the contest. Still, the newest co/efficient and Trafalgar surveys both place the Republican ahead, after Democrats had cited earlier polls as evidence that they could flip the seat.
Ohio and Maine Remain Contested
Republicans have also seen encouraging numbers in Ohio, where a Rasmussen Reports survey found incumbent Sen. Jon Husted leading former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, 49% to 47%. An ActiVote poll released October 18 showed an even tighter Husted advantage, 50.2% to 49.8%, and co/efficient previously gave the Republican a one-point lead.
Other Ohio polling favors Brown. A new Marist survey released Tuesday shows the Democrat ahead by four points, and the RealClearPolitics average has Brown leading 47.4% to 44.6%.
In Maine, the latest polling does not show Republican Sen. Susan Collins taking the lead. InsiderAdvantage, Suffolk University, and Rasmussen each recently found Democrat Troy Jackson ahead, 49% to 47%. The RealClearPolitics average puts Jackson up by only 1.6 points. An earlier co/efficient survey had Collins ahead by two, which keeps the veteran Republican within striking distance in a state where she has previously outperformed pre-election polling.
The Reaction
Fox News anchor Bret Baier highlighted the uncertainty on Sunday, noting that Republicans could finish with a 52-48 Senate majority if GOP candidates outperform current polling averages by margins similar to those seen in past elections.
What This Means
With several races separated by only a point or two in either direction, the final days of the campaign could determine which party controls the Senate. Polling averages in these states are shifting quickly, and the results of the next few surveys will be closely watched as voters head to the polls.
